How often we're right

A day ahead, when we say a delay is very likely, we're right 93% of the time.

Do the words hold?

No7%

Unlikely20%

Maybe46%

Probably71%

Very likely93%

what we said · what happened · a day ahead

24 h78%

6 h79%

3 h80%

our modelsaying “not late” every time (75%)

55 in 100 flights that left late had “Maybe” or worse from us a day ahead.

24 h1417

6 h1417

3 h1317

ours · ~~going by the flight's usual delay~~

pass the reliability test

411,116 departures the model never saw, Mon 5 Oct to Sun 25 Oct, each asked a day, 6 hours and 3 hours ahead.

Fourth model Tue 27 Oct 78% right · 14 min missSharper at every lead, a day ahead included
Third model Mon 26 Oct 78% right · 14 min missA little sharper from six hours before departure; day-ahead answers as before
Second model Mon 26 Oct 78% right · 14 min missSharper in the last hours before departure; the verdict words now hold to within a point
First model Mon 26 Oct 14 min missThe first version, tested on three weeks it never saw