Will EI3615 be delayed today?
Manchester → George Best Belfast City · Sat 31 Oct · Aer Lingus
updated Manchester time
Unlikely. It should leave close to 16:05.
It should have left by now. The board hasn't shown it leaving yet.
No6%Unlikely20%Maybe45%Probably71%Very likely93%% of flights that really left 15+ min late when we said that word ›Leaves16:05≈16:09
As of 13:59, EI3615 should push back about 16:09 (scheduled 16:05).
Boarding still follows the original schedule.
Why ≈4 min
A usual afternoonEI3615's typical departure, last 90 days6
Your planeNot assigned yet0
On time on the board so farManchester departures board−1
Calmer than usual at ManchesterFrom the TAF: dry today−1
Leaves≈4−1 to 13
weather at Belfastdepartures at ManchesterAer Lingus todaystorms, quakes, volcanoes
Cancelled? 1 in 179
usually 1 in 49Check again 15:20Manchester time
Last 90 days
71on time
10late
8very late
1cancelled
M
T
W
T
F
S
S
EI3615 Manchester to Belfast left within 15 minutes of schedule on 71 of its last 90 flights, usually 3 minutes late, and 15 minutes or more late on 18. It was cancelled once.