Will CA1315 be delayed today?
Beijing → Guangzhou Baiyun · Sun 1 Nov · Air China
updated Beijing time
Probably, by about 15 minutes.
It should have left by now. The board hasn't shown it leaving yet.
No6%Unlikely20%Maybe45%Probably70%Very likely93%% of flights that really left 15+ min late when we said that word ›Leaves10:40≈10:57
Lands14:05≈14:09
As of 04:59, CA1315 should push back about 10:57 (scheduled 10:40) and land about 14:09 (scheduled 14:05).
Boarding still follows the original schedule.
Why ≈15 min
A usual morningCA1315's typical departure, last 90 days19
Your planeNot assigned yet0
Calmer than usual at BeijingFrom the TAF: dry today−2
Calmer than usual at GuangzhouFrom the TAF: dry today. Arrivals there in the last hour: 50% 15+ min late−1
Beijing is backing up60% of departures in the last three hours left 15+ min late+1
Leaves≈1510 to 39
Made up in the air−13
Lands≈4
Air China todaystorms, quakes, volcanoes
Cancelled? 1 in 40
Check again 07:40Beijing time
Meeting someone?
Last 90 days
20on time
60late
10very late
0cancelled
M
T
W
T
F
S
S
CA1315 Beijing to Guangzhou left within 15 minutes of schedule on 20 of its last 90 flights, usually 22 minutes late, and 15 minutes or more late on 70. It wasn't cancelled once.