Will NX861 be delayed today?
Tokyo → Macau · Tue 3 Nov · Air Macau
same answer since Tokyo time
Unlikely. It should leave about 6 minutes late, around 15:36.
It should have left by now. The board hasn't shown it leaving yet.
No7%Unlikely20%Maybe46%Probably71%Very likely93%% of flights that really left 15+ min late when we said that word ›Leaves15:30≈15:36
As of 12:49, NX861 should push back about 15:36 (scheduled 15:30).
Boarding still follows the original schedule.
Why ≈6 min
A usual afternoonNX861's typical departure, last 90 days8
Your plane, probablyIt usually comes in as NX862 from Macau, due 14:300
On time on the board so farTokyo departures board−1
Calmer than usual at TokyoFrom the TAF: dry today−1
Leaves≈60 to 16
weather at Macaudepartures at TokyoAir Macau todaystorms, quakes, volcanoes
Cancelled? < 1 in 200
usually 1 in 82Check again 14:30Tokyo time
Last 90 days
50on time
11late
8very late
0cancelled
M
T
W
T
F
S
S
NX861 Tokyo to Macau left within 15 minutes of schedule on 50 of its last 69 flights, usually 4 minutes late, and 15 minutes or more late on 19. It wasn't cancelled once.