Will AS864 be delayed today?
Tokyo → Honolulu Daniel K. Inouye · Sun 1 Nov · Alaska Airlines
updated Tokyo time
Unlikely. It should leave close to 20:05.
It should have left by now. The board hasn't shown it leaving yet.
No7%Unlikely20%Maybe46%Probably71%Very likely93%% of flights that really left 15+ min late when we said that word ›Leaves20:05≈20:07
Lands08:59≈08:50
As of 05:19, AS864 should push back about 20:07 (scheduled 20:05) and land about 08:50 (scheduled 08:59).
Boarding still follows the original schedule.
Why ≈2 min
A usual eveningAS864's typical departure, last 90 days3
Your planeNot assigned yet0
Calmer than usual at TokyoFrom our forecast: dry today−1
Leaves≈2−3 to 7
Made up in the air−11
Lands≈−9
weather at Honoluludepartures at TokyoAlaska todayFAA ground stops and delay programsstorms, quakes, volcanoes
Cancelled? 1 in 90
usually 1 in 47Check again 17:05Tokyo time
Meeting someone?
Last 90 days
72on time
11late
5very late
1cancelled
M
T
W
T
F
S
S
AS864 Tokyo to Honolulu left within 15 minutes of schedule on 72 of its last 89 flights, usually 2 minutes early, and 15 minutes or more late on 16. It was cancelled once.