Will AA3851 be delayed today?
Chicago → Chattanooga Metropolitan (Lovell Field) · Sat 31 Oct · American Airlines
updated Chicago time
Unlikely. It should leave close to 21:00.
It should have left by now. The board hasn't shown it leaving yet.
No6%Unlikely20%Maybe45%Probably70%Very likely93%% of flights that really left 15+ min late when we said that word ›Leaves21:00≈20:58
As of 09:19, AA3851 should push back about 20:58 (scheduled 21:00).
Boarding still follows the original schedule.
Why ≈2 min early
A usual eveningAA3851's typical departure, last 90 days1
Your planeNot assigned yet0
Chicago is running smoothly27% of departures in the last hour left 15+ min late−1
No FAA programsNone in force right now−2
Leaves≈−2−4 to 8
weather at Chicagoweather at ChattanoogaAmerican todaystorms, quakes, volcanoes
Cancelled? < 1 in 200
usually 1 in 192Check again 18:00Chicago time
Last 90 days
19on time
4late
2very late
0cancelled
M
T
W
T
F
S
S
AA3851 Chicago to Chattanooga left within 15 minutes of schedule on 19 of its last 25 flights, usually 2 minutes early, and 15 minutes or more late on 6. It wasn't cancelled once.