Will CI127 be delayed today?
Tokyo → Kaohsiung · Sun 1 Nov · China Airlines
updated Tokyo time
Unlikely. It should leave close to 18:25.
It should have left by now. The board hasn't shown it leaving yet.
No6%Unlikely20%Maybe46%Probably71%Very likely94%% of flights that really left 15+ min late when we said that word ›Leaves18:25≈18:30
As of 17:39, CI127 should push back about 18:30 (scheduled 18:25).
Boarding still follows the original schedule.
Why ≈5 min
A usual eveningCI127's typical departure, last 90 days10
Your plane, probablyIt usually comes in as CI126 from Kaohsiung, 5 min behind, due 17:300
On time on the board so farTokyo departures board−3
Calmer than usual at TokyoFrom the TAF: dry today−1
Tokyo is running smoothly28% of departures in the last hour left 15+ min late−1
Leaves≈51 to 15
weather at KaohsiungChina todaystorms, quakes, volcanoes
Cancelled? < 1 in 200
usually 1 in 62Check again 17:40Tokyo time
Last 90 days
61on time
20late
7very late
1cancelled
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T
F
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CI127 Tokyo to Kaohsiung left within 15 minutes of schedule on 61 of its last 89 flights, usually 10 minutes late, and 15 minutes or more late on 27. It was cancelled once.