Will TP431 be delayed tomorrow?
Paris → Lisbon Humberto Delgado · Sun 1 Nov · TAP Air Portugal
updated Paris time
Maybe, by about 15 minutes.
It should have left by now. The board hasn't shown it leaving yet.
No7%Unlikely20%Maybe46%Probably71%Very likely93%% of flights that really left 15+ min late when we said that word ›Leaves11:00≈11:15
Lands12:35≈12:40
As of 19:19, TP431 should push back about 11:15 (scheduled 11:00) and land about 12:40 (scheduled 12:35).
Boarding still follows the original schedule.
Why ≈15 min
A usual morningTP431's typical departure, last 90 days17
Your plane, probablyIt usually comes in as TP430 from Lisbon, not departed yet0
Calmer than usual at ParisFrom our forecast: dry tomorrow−1
Calmer than usual at LisbonFrom our forecast: dry tomorrow. Arrivals there in the last hour: 20% 15+ min late−1
Leaves≈157 to 29
Made up in the air−10
Lands≈5
departures at ParisTAP AIR PORTUGAL todaystorms, quakes, volcanoes
Cancelled? < 1 in 200
Check again tomorrow 08:00Paris time
Meeting someone?
Last 90 days
33on time
33late
14very late
0cancelled
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TP431 Paris to Lisbon left within 15 minutes of schedule on 33 of its last 80 flights, usually 18 minutes late, and 15 minutes or more late on 47. It wasn't cancelled once.