Will UA809 be delayed today?
San Francisco → Manila Ninoy Aquino · Sat 31 Oct · United
updated San Francisco time
Unlikely. It should leave close to 15:05.
It should have left by now. The board hasn't shown it leaving yet.
No6%Unlikely20%Maybe45%Probably70%Very likely93%% of flights that really left 15+ min late when we said that word ›Leaves15:05≈15:09
Lands20:05≈19:54Sun
As of 09:19, UA809 should push back about 15:09 (scheduled 15:05) and land about 19:54 (scheduled 20:05).
Boarding still follows the original schedule.
Why ≈4 min
A usual afternoonUA809's typical departure, last 90 days6
Your plane, probablyIt usually comes in as UA838 from Tokyo, 54 min behind, due 11:24+1
Calmer than usual at San FranciscoFrom the TAF: dry today−1
San Francisco is running smoothly1% of departures in the last hour left 15+ min late−1
No FAA programsNone in force right now−1
Leaves≈4−3 to 16
Made up in the air−15
Lands≈−11
weather at ManilaUnited todaystorms, quakes, volcanoes
Cancelled? < 1 in 200
Check again 11:24San Francisco time
Meeting someone?
Last 90 days
46on time
19late
7very late
0cancelled
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UA809 San Francisco to Manila left within 15 minutes of schedule on 46 of its last 72 flights, usually 6 minutes late, and 15 minutes or more late on 26. It wasn't cancelled once.