Will CA1515 be delayed today?
Beijing → Shanghai Hongqiao · Sun 1 Nov · Air China
updated Beijing time
Maybe, by about 15 minutes.
It should have left by now. The board hasn't shown it leaving yet.
No6%Unlikely20%Maybe46%Probably71%Very likely94%% of flights that really left 15+ min late when we said that word ›Leaves15:45≈16:02
Lands17:55≈18:04
As of 15:39, CA1515 should push back about 16:02 (scheduled 15:45) and land about 18:04 (scheduled 17:55).
Boarding still follows the original schedule.
Why ≈15 min
A usual afternoonCA1515's typical departure, last 90 days18
Your planeNot assigned yet0
On time on the board so farBeijing departures board−2
Calmer than usual at BeijingFrom the TAF: dry today−1
Calmer than usual at ShanghaiFrom the TAF: showers but light wind today. Arrivals there in the last hour: 0% 15+ min late−1
Beijing is backing up47% of departures in the last hour left 15+ min late+1
Air China is running late today50% of its departures in the last three hours left 15+ min late; earlier on this route: 13 min late+2
Leaves≈159 to 27
Made up in the air−8
Lands≈9
storms, quakes, volcanoes
Cancelled? < 1 in 200
Meeting someone?
Last 90 days
31on time
35late
16very late
4cancelled
M
T
W
T
F
S
S
CA1515 Beijing to Shanghai left within 15 minutes of schedule on 31 of its last 86 flights, usually 19 minutes late, and 15 minutes or more late on 51. It was cancelled 4 times.